Electronic Proceedings of the Twenty-fifth Annual International Conference on Technology in Collegiate MathematicsBoston, Massachusetts, March 21-24, 2013Paper C021
How MELD Scores Affect the Survival Rate of Liver Transplant Recipients |
Ashleigh CraigIndiana University of Pennsylvania | Theresa ScarnatiIndiana University of Pennsylvania |
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ABSTRACT
In this paper, we attempt to model the effects of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores on the survival rates of liver transplant recipients. We attempt to determine the MELD scores that are optimal for patient survival one year after transplantation. The purpose of this model is to determine allocation of livers so that they will be utilized most effectively. To utilize the limited resource, it is best to provide a liver to a patient with a higher rate of survival after transplantation over someone with a smaller chance of survival. The national average MELD Score for patients on the liver transplant waiting list is 20. We examine our data to determine whether this value is optimal for saving the most lives with liver transplants, since most patients are on the transplant list for 12-36 months. Using our model, we determine that the optimal MELD score range for transplantation is between 21-30.Keyword(s): modeling